Since BankNifty shows some weakness yesterday.Still it will continue if it breaks 10640 then next support seen @ 10494 / then 10375
Resistance seen above 10900 /11120
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Bank Nifty Calls
Bank Nifty breaks 10741 then next Support levels 10370
Resistance levels 11170 then next 11260
Resistance levels 11170 then next 11260
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Bank Nifty Calls
Buy Bank Nifty 10500 with stoploss of 10490
Next Support Levels : 10300
Next Resistance Levels : 11170 /11350
Next Support Levels : 10300
Next Resistance Levels : 11170 /11350
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Friday, October 3, 2008
Forecasting Financial Statements: A Framework for EPS Projections
Introduction
Earnings (EPS) Projections for the next two or three years is a common and useful tool for analysts. EPS projections act as a valuation anchor to form opinion about over/under pricing. Analysts compare price-earnings multiples (P/E) with peers in the industry using EPS projections. The two most important financial statements which are a bible to the analysts are Income Statement and Balance Sheet. This article tries to explain the mechanics of EPS projections.
1. Historical Performance & Variable Input Analysis
Historical Analysis is the starting point for projecting a firm's future performance and financial condition. This is the basis for projecting a firm's performance under future conditions. Identification of key variables influencing the company is the main tool in building financial projections. The analyst should be able to determine what has probably caused the historical results. This should be supplemented with information about future conditions provided by statistical organizations, industry projections or company plans.
Using this information, the analyst can begin to make assumptions as to what future events may occur and how these events will affect the firm's future performance. Normally, the analysts use financial statements over a minimum of three (and preferably five) years to examine a firm's historical performance.
2. Summary of Analysis of Company's Performance
The analyst should summarize his analysis of the company's performance before beginning projections.
1. Is the company operationally healthy? (OP, OPM, EBIDTA)
2. Is the company financially strong or too highly leveraged? ( D/E Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio)
3. Are markets growing, stable or shrinking? (Industry Growth)
4. How is the company situated amongst the competitors? (Market Share)
5. A summary of present financial condition and existing cash flow.
6. Strengths and weaknesses in management, industry position, nature of products and attendant risks, economic cyclicality.
7. Management Performance as an influencing variable.
8. Operating Risks.
9. Historical Spreadsheets.
3. Defining the Initial Assumptions
All estimates revolve around the underlying assumptions and their reasonableness. EPS projections credibility resides on this plain fact.
a) Projections are Sales Driven: Assumptions regarding sales growth are the most important. The analyst should always mention and qualify the assumptions on which sales projections are based.
b) Examine the Management's Scenarios: The company's management may give best case scenarios regarding projections. The analyst has to take into account best case, most likely case, and worst case. The equity analyst should play devil's advocate to their reasonableness and where necessary make adjustments.
c) Sensitivity Analysis to EPS Projections: Once projections have been prepared, adjustments must be made to reflect a reasonable worst case scenario.
d) Procedure for Constructing Projections: The company's performance is linked to the inflow of money into the company, i.e., projections are sales driven. The projection of Income Statement and Balance Sheet items are related directly or indirectly to the projected sales level. For example, sales level is a main determinant of asset growth - the higher the sales, the higher the working investment needed to support the sales.
There are two sources of financing: -
• Profits earned and retained in the business
• Outside financing either through increased equity (issue of stock) or increased debt
Conclusion
The crux of creating a proforma income statement and balance sheet is determining: -
a) Probable sales revenue and related income statement expense items.
b) Probable total asset growth and corresponding liability growth.
c) A bottom-line profit figure and how much additional financing the company will need to support asset growth.
The approach to constructing EPS projections can be summarized as follows: -
1. Summarize conclusions from historical analysis.
2. Define assumptions underlying variable input analysis for the future performance and conditions in the industry and economy.
3. Define the objectives of the projections.
4. Project Income Statement and Balance Sheet items.
As the saying goes, "The research analyst is only as good as his Excel Spread Sheet." So EPS Projections form the core analysis and important output of the Equity Research Analyst.
- By Prof. Gangineni Dhananjhay
Earnings (EPS) Projections for the next two or three years is a common and useful tool for analysts. EPS projections act as a valuation anchor to form opinion about over/under pricing. Analysts compare price-earnings multiples (P/E) with peers in the industry using EPS projections. The two most important financial statements which are a bible to the analysts are Income Statement and Balance Sheet. This article tries to explain the mechanics of EPS projections.
1. Historical Performance & Variable Input Analysis
Historical Analysis is the starting point for projecting a firm's future performance and financial condition. This is the basis for projecting a firm's performance under future conditions. Identification of key variables influencing the company is the main tool in building financial projections. The analyst should be able to determine what has probably caused the historical results. This should be supplemented with information about future conditions provided by statistical organizations, industry projections or company plans.
Using this information, the analyst can begin to make assumptions as to what future events may occur and how these events will affect the firm's future performance. Normally, the analysts use financial statements over a minimum of three (and preferably five) years to examine a firm's historical performance.
2. Summary of Analysis of Company's Performance
The analyst should summarize his analysis of the company's performance before beginning projections.
1. Is the company operationally healthy? (OP, OPM, EBIDTA)
2. Is the company financially strong or too highly leveraged? ( D/E Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio)
3. Are markets growing, stable or shrinking? (Industry Growth)
4. How is the company situated amongst the competitors? (Market Share)
5. A summary of present financial condition and existing cash flow.
6. Strengths and weaknesses in management, industry position, nature of products and attendant risks, economic cyclicality.
7. Management Performance as an influencing variable.
8. Operating Risks.
9. Historical Spreadsheets.
3. Defining the Initial Assumptions
All estimates revolve around the underlying assumptions and their reasonableness. EPS projections credibility resides on this plain fact.
a) Projections are Sales Driven: Assumptions regarding sales growth are the most important. The analyst should always mention and qualify the assumptions on which sales projections are based.
b) Examine the Management's Scenarios: The company's management may give best case scenarios regarding projections. The analyst has to take into account best case, most likely case, and worst case. The equity analyst should play devil's advocate to their reasonableness and where necessary make adjustments.
c) Sensitivity Analysis to EPS Projections: Once projections have been prepared, adjustments must be made to reflect a reasonable worst case scenario.
d) Procedure for Constructing Projections: The company's performance is linked to the inflow of money into the company, i.e., projections are sales driven. The projection of Income Statement and Balance Sheet items are related directly or indirectly to the projected sales level. For example, sales level is a main determinant of asset growth - the higher the sales, the higher the working investment needed to support the sales.
There are two sources of financing: -
• Profits earned and retained in the business
• Outside financing either through increased equity (issue of stock) or increased debt
Conclusion
The crux of creating a proforma income statement and balance sheet is determining: -
a) Probable sales revenue and related income statement expense items.
b) Probable total asset growth and corresponding liability growth.
c) A bottom-line profit figure and how much additional financing the company will need to support asset growth.
The approach to constructing EPS projections can be summarized as follows: -
1. Summarize conclusions from historical analysis.
2. Define assumptions underlying variable input analysis for the future performance and conditions in the industry and economy.
3. Define the objectives of the projections.
4. Project Income Statement and Balance Sheet items.
As the saying goes, "The research analyst is only as good as his Excel Spread Sheet." So EPS Projections form the core analysis and important output of the Equity Research Analyst.
- By Prof. Gangineni Dhananjhay
Friday, April 20, 2007
Trading Rules
Trading Rule No-1
________________________________________
THE MARKET PAYS YOU TO BE DISCIPLINED.
Trading with discipline will putmore money in your pocket and
take less money out. The one constant truth concerning the
markets is that discipline = increased profits.
Trading RULE No-2
________________________________________
BE DISCIPLINED EVERY DAY, IN EVERY TRADE, AND THE MARKET WILL REWARD YOU. BUT DON’T CLAIM TO BE DISCIPLINED IF YOU ARE NOT 100 PERCENT OF THE TIME.
Being disciplined is of the utmost importance,
but it’s not a sometimes thing, like claiming you quit a bad habit, such as smoking. If you claim to quit smoking but you sneak a cigarette every once in a while, then you clearly have not quit smoking. If you trade with discipline nine out of ten trades, then you can’t claim to be a disciplined trader. It is the one undisciplined trade that will really hurt your overall performance for the day. Discipline must be practiced on every trade.
When I state that “the market will reward you,” typically it is in recognizing less of a loss on a losing trade than if you were stubborn and held on too long to a bad trade. Thus, if I lose Rs 200 on a trade, but I would have lost Rs. 1,000 if I had remained in that losing trade, I can claim that I “saved” myself Rs. 800 in additional losses by exiting the bad trade with haste
Trading Rule No-3
________________________________________
ALWAYS LOWER YOUR TRADE SIZE WHEN YOU’RE TRADING POORLY.
All good traders follow this rule. Why continue to lose on five lots (contracts) per trade when you could save yourself a lot of money by lowering your trade size down to a one lot on your next trade? If I have two losing trades in a row, I always lower my trade size down to a one lot. If my next two trades are profitable, then I move my trade size back up to my original lot size. It’s like a batter in baseball who has struck out his last two times at bat. The next time up he will choke up on the bat, shorten his swing and try to make contact. Trading is the same: lower your trade size, try to make a tick or two — or even scratch the trade — and then raise your trade size after two consecutive winning trades.
Trading Rule No- 4
________________________________________
NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER
We have all violated this rule.However, it should be our goal to try harder not to violate it in the future. What we are really talking about here is the greed factor. The market has rewarded you by moving in the direction of your position, however, you are not satisfied with a small winner. Thus you hold
onto the trade in the hopes of a larger gain, only to watch the market turn and move against you. Of course, inevitably you now hesitate and the trade further deteriorates into a substantial loss. There’s no need to be greedy. It’s only one trade. You’ll make many more trades throughout the session and many more throughout the next trading sessions. Opportunity exists in the marketplace all of the time. Remember: No one trade should make or break your performance
for the day. Don’t be greedy
Trading Rule No - 5
________________________________________
YOUR BIGGEST LOSER CAN’T EXCEED YOUR BIGGEST WINNER.
Keep a trade log of all your trades throughout the session. If, for example, you know that, so far, your biggest winner on the day is five e-Mini S& P points, then do not allow a losing trade to exceed those five points. If you do allow a loss to exceed your biggest gain then, effectively, what you have when you net out the biggest winner and biggest loss is a net loss on the two trades. Not good.
Trading Rule No - 6
________________________________________
DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY AND STICK WITH IT. DON’T CHANGE METHODOLOGIES FROM DAY TO DAY.
I require my “students” to actually write down the specific market prerequisites (setups) that must take place in order for them to make a trade. I don’t necessarily care what the methodology is, but I do want them to make sure that they have a set of rules, market setups or price action that must appear in order for them to take the trade. You must have a game plan. If you have a proven methodology but it doesn’t seem to be working in a given trading session, don’t go home that night and try to devise another one. If your methodology works more than one-half of the trading sessions, then stick with it.
Trading Rule No - 7
________________________________________
BE YOURSELF. DON’T TRY TO BE SOMEONE ELSE.
In all of my years as a trader I never traded more than a 50 lot on any individual trade. Sure, I would have liked to be able to trade like colleagues in the pit who were regularly trading 100 or 200 lots per trade. However, I didn’t possess the emotional or psychological skill set necessary to trade such big size. That’s OK. I knew that my comfort zone was somewhere between 10 and 20 lots per trade. Typically, if I traded more than 20 lots, I would “butcher” the trade. Emotionally I could not handle that size. The trade would inevitably turn into a loser because I could not trade with the same talent level that I possessed with a 10 lot. Learn to accept your comfort zone as it relates to trade size. You are who you are.
Trading Rule - 8
________________________________________
YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE ABLE TO COME BACK AND PLAY THE NEXT DAY.
Never put yourself in the precarious position of losing more money than you can afford. The worst feeling in the world is wanting to trade and not being able to do so because the equity in your account is too low and your brokerage firm will not allow you to continue unless you submit more funds. I require my students to place daily downside limits on their performance. For example, your daily loss limit can never exceed Rs. 5000. Once you reach the Rs. 5000 loss limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
Trading Rule - 9
________________________________________
EARN THE RIGHT TO TRADE BIGGER.
Too many new traders think that because they have $25,000 equity in their trading account that they somehow have the right to trade five or ten e-Mini S&P contracts. This cannot be further from the truth. If you can’t trade a one lot successfully, what makes you think that you have the right to trade a 10 lot?
I demand that my students show me a trading profit over the course of ten consecutive trading days trading a one lot only. When they have achieved a profitable ten-day period, in my eyes, they have earned the right to trade a two lot for the next ten trading sessions.
Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
Trading Rule No -10
________________________________________
GET OUT OF 0F YOUR LOSERS
You are not a “loser” because you have a losing trade on. You are, however, a loser if you do not get out of the losing trade once you recognize that the trade is no good. It’s amazing to me how accurate your gut is as a market indicator. If, in your gut, you have the idea that the trade is no good then it’s probably no good. Time to exit.
Every trader has losing trades throughout the session. A typical trade
day for me consists of 33 percent losing trades, 33 percent scratches and 33 percent winners. I exit my losers very quickly. They don’t cost me much. So, although I have either lost or scratched over two-thirds of my trades for the day, I still go home a winner.
Trading Rule No-11
________________________________________
THE FIRST LOSS IS THE BEST LOSS.
Once you come to the realization that your trade is no good it’s best to exit immediately. “It’s never a loser until you get out” and “Not to worry, it’ll come back” are often said tongue in cheek, by traders in the pit. Once the phrase is stated, it is an affirmation that the trader realizes that the trade is no good, it is not coming back and it is time to exit.
Trading Rule No -12
________________________________________
DON’T HOPE AND PRAY. IF YOU DO, YOU WILL LOSE.
When I was a new and undisciplined trader, I can’t tell you how many times that I prayed to the “Bond god.” My prayers were a plea to help me out of a less-than-pleasant trade position. I would pray for some sort of divine intervention that, by the way, never materialized. I soon realized that praying to the “Bond god” or any other “futures god” was a wasted exercise. Just get out!
Trading Rule No -13
________________________________________
DON’T WORRY ABOUT NEWS. IT’S HISTORY.
I have never understood why so many electronic traders listen to or watch CNBC, MSNBC, Bloomberg News or FNN all day long. The “talking heads” on these programs know very little about market dynamics and market price action. Very few, if any, have ever even traded a one lot in any pit on any exchange. Yet they claim to be experts on everything.
Before becoming a “trading and markets expert,” the guy on CNBC reporting hourly from the Bond Pit, was a phone clerk on the trading floor. Obviously this qualifies him to be an expert! He, and others, can provide no utility to you. Treat it for what it really is…. entertainment.
The fact is: The reporting that you hear on the business programs is “old news.” The story has already been dissected and consumed by the professional market participants long before the “news” has been disseminated. Do not trade off of the reporting. It’s too late.
Trading Rule No -14
________________________________________
DON’T SPECULATE. IF YOU DO,YOU WILL LOSE.
In all of the years that I have been a trader and associated with traders, I have never met a successful speculator. It is impossible to speculate and consistently print large winners. Don’t be a speculator. Be a trader. Short-term scalping of the markets is the answer. The probability of a winning day or week is greatly increased if you trade short term: small winners and even smaller losses.
Trading Rule No -15
________________________________________
LOVE TO LOSE MONEY.
This rule is the one that I get the most questions and feedback on by traders from all over the world. Traders ask, “What do you mean, love to lose money. Are you crazy?” No, I’m not crazy. What I mean is to accept the fact that you are going to have losing trades throughout the trading session. Get out of your losers quickly. Love to get out of your losers quickly. It will save you
a lot of trading capital and will make you a much better trader.
________________________________________
THE MARKET PAYS YOU TO BE DISCIPLINED.
Trading with discipline will putmore money in your pocket and
take less money out. The one constant truth concerning the
markets is that discipline = increased profits.
Trading RULE No-2
________________________________________
BE DISCIPLINED EVERY DAY, IN EVERY TRADE, AND THE MARKET WILL REWARD YOU. BUT DON’T CLAIM TO BE DISCIPLINED IF YOU ARE NOT 100 PERCENT OF THE TIME.
Being disciplined is of the utmost importance,
but it’s not a sometimes thing, like claiming you quit a bad habit, such as smoking. If you claim to quit smoking but you sneak a cigarette every once in a while, then you clearly have not quit smoking. If you trade with discipline nine out of ten trades, then you can’t claim to be a disciplined trader. It is the one undisciplined trade that will really hurt your overall performance for the day. Discipline must be practiced on every trade.
When I state that “the market will reward you,” typically it is in recognizing less of a loss on a losing trade than if you were stubborn and held on too long to a bad trade. Thus, if I lose Rs 200 on a trade, but I would have lost Rs. 1,000 if I had remained in that losing trade, I can claim that I “saved” myself Rs. 800 in additional losses by exiting the bad trade with haste
Trading Rule No-3
________________________________________
ALWAYS LOWER YOUR TRADE SIZE WHEN YOU’RE TRADING POORLY.
All good traders follow this rule. Why continue to lose on five lots (contracts) per trade when you could save yourself a lot of money by lowering your trade size down to a one lot on your next trade? If I have two losing trades in a row, I always lower my trade size down to a one lot. If my next two trades are profitable, then I move my trade size back up to my original lot size. It’s like a batter in baseball who has struck out his last two times at bat. The next time up he will choke up on the bat, shorten his swing and try to make contact. Trading is the same: lower your trade size, try to make a tick or two — or even scratch the trade — and then raise your trade size after two consecutive winning trades.
Trading Rule No- 4
________________________________________
NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER
We have all violated this rule.However, it should be our goal to try harder not to violate it in the future. What we are really talking about here is the greed factor. The market has rewarded you by moving in the direction of your position, however, you are not satisfied with a small winner. Thus you hold
onto the trade in the hopes of a larger gain, only to watch the market turn and move against you. Of course, inevitably you now hesitate and the trade further deteriorates into a substantial loss. There’s no need to be greedy. It’s only one trade. You’ll make many more trades throughout the session and many more throughout the next trading sessions. Opportunity exists in the marketplace all of the time. Remember: No one trade should make or break your performance
for the day. Don’t be greedy
Trading Rule No - 5
________________________________________
YOUR BIGGEST LOSER CAN’T EXCEED YOUR BIGGEST WINNER.
Keep a trade log of all your trades throughout the session. If, for example, you know that, so far, your biggest winner on the day is five e-Mini S& P points, then do not allow a losing trade to exceed those five points. If you do allow a loss to exceed your biggest gain then, effectively, what you have when you net out the biggest winner and biggest loss is a net loss on the two trades. Not good.
Trading Rule No - 6
________________________________________
DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY AND STICK WITH IT. DON’T CHANGE METHODOLOGIES FROM DAY TO DAY.
I require my “students” to actually write down the specific market prerequisites (setups) that must take place in order for them to make a trade. I don’t necessarily care what the methodology is, but I do want them to make sure that they have a set of rules, market setups or price action that must appear in order for them to take the trade. You must have a game plan. If you have a proven methodology but it doesn’t seem to be working in a given trading session, don’t go home that night and try to devise another one. If your methodology works more than one-half of the trading sessions, then stick with it.
Trading Rule No - 7
________________________________________
BE YOURSELF. DON’T TRY TO BE SOMEONE ELSE.
In all of my years as a trader I never traded more than a 50 lot on any individual trade. Sure, I would have liked to be able to trade like colleagues in the pit who were regularly trading 100 or 200 lots per trade. However, I didn’t possess the emotional or psychological skill set necessary to trade such big size. That’s OK. I knew that my comfort zone was somewhere between 10 and 20 lots per trade. Typically, if I traded more than 20 lots, I would “butcher” the trade. Emotionally I could not handle that size. The trade would inevitably turn into a loser because I could not trade with the same talent level that I possessed with a 10 lot. Learn to accept your comfort zone as it relates to trade size. You are who you are.
Trading Rule - 8
________________________________________
YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE ABLE TO COME BACK AND PLAY THE NEXT DAY.
Never put yourself in the precarious position of losing more money than you can afford. The worst feeling in the world is wanting to trade and not being able to do so because the equity in your account is too low and your brokerage firm will not allow you to continue unless you submit more funds. I require my students to place daily downside limits on their performance. For example, your daily loss limit can never exceed Rs. 5000. Once you reach the Rs. 5000 loss limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
Trading Rule - 9
________________________________________
EARN THE RIGHT TO TRADE BIGGER.
Too many new traders think that because they have $25,000 equity in their trading account that they somehow have the right to trade five or ten e-Mini S&P contracts. This cannot be further from the truth. If you can’t trade a one lot successfully, what makes you think that you have the right to trade a 10 lot?
I demand that my students show me a trading profit over the course of ten consecutive trading days trading a one lot only. When they have achieved a profitable ten-day period, in my eyes, they have earned the right to trade a two lot for the next ten trading sessions.
Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
Trading Rule No -10
________________________________________
GET OUT OF 0F YOUR LOSERS
You are not a “loser” because you have a losing trade on. You are, however, a loser if you do not get out of the losing trade once you recognize that the trade is no good. It’s amazing to me how accurate your gut is as a market indicator. If, in your gut, you have the idea that the trade is no good then it’s probably no good. Time to exit.
Every trader has losing trades throughout the session. A typical trade
day for me consists of 33 percent losing trades, 33 percent scratches and 33 percent winners. I exit my losers very quickly. They don’t cost me much. So, although I have either lost or scratched over two-thirds of my trades for the day, I still go home a winner.
Trading Rule No-11
________________________________________
THE FIRST LOSS IS THE BEST LOSS.
Once you come to the realization that your trade is no good it’s best to exit immediately. “It’s never a loser until you get out” and “Not to worry, it’ll come back” are often said tongue in cheek, by traders in the pit. Once the phrase is stated, it is an affirmation that the trader realizes that the trade is no good, it is not coming back and it is time to exit.
Trading Rule No -12
________________________________________
DON’T HOPE AND PRAY. IF YOU DO, YOU WILL LOSE.
When I was a new and undisciplined trader, I can’t tell you how many times that I prayed to the “Bond god.” My prayers were a plea to help me out of a less-than-pleasant trade position. I would pray for some sort of divine intervention that, by the way, never materialized. I soon realized that praying to the “Bond god” or any other “futures god” was a wasted exercise. Just get out!
Trading Rule No -13
________________________________________
DON’T WORRY ABOUT NEWS. IT’S HISTORY.
I have never understood why so many electronic traders listen to or watch CNBC, MSNBC, Bloomberg News or FNN all day long. The “talking heads” on these programs know very little about market dynamics and market price action. Very few, if any, have ever even traded a one lot in any pit on any exchange. Yet they claim to be experts on everything.
Before becoming a “trading and markets expert,” the guy on CNBC reporting hourly from the Bond Pit, was a phone clerk on the trading floor. Obviously this qualifies him to be an expert! He, and others, can provide no utility to you. Treat it for what it really is…. entertainment.
The fact is: The reporting that you hear on the business programs is “old news.” The story has already been dissected and consumed by the professional market participants long before the “news” has been disseminated. Do not trade off of the reporting. It’s too late.
Trading Rule No -14
________________________________________
DON’T SPECULATE. IF YOU DO,YOU WILL LOSE.
In all of the years that I have been a trader and associated with traders, I have never met a successful speculator. It is impossible to speculate and consistently print large winners. Don’t be a speculator. Be a trader. Short-term scalping of the markets is the answer. The probability of a winning day or week is greatly increased if you trade short term: small winners and even smaller losses.
Trading Rule No -15
________________________________________
LOVE TO LOSE MONEY.
This rule is the one that I get the most questions and feedback on by traders from all over the world. Traders ask, “What do you mean, love to lose money. Are you crazy?” No, I’m not crazy. What I mean is to accept the fact that you are going to have losing trades throughout the trading session. Get out of your losers quickly. Love to get out of your losers quickly. It will save you
a lot of trading capital and will make you a much better trader.
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